Thursday, May 13, 2010
David Cameron hails 'seismic shift' in politics
The new Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister issued their policy prospectus for a full five-year parliament as they promised to bury the past differences between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in a move that could create a permanent realignment in British politics.
With the hopes of Blairites for a Lib-Lab "progressive alliance" in ruins, some Tories said Mr Cameron saw his partnership with the Liberal Democrats as the next stage of his crusade to modernise the Conservative Party.
His close allies believe the Tories' failure to win an overall majority in last week's general election shows they have not yet "detoxified" the party's brand – and hope that the unexpected alliance with the centrist third party will enable him to complete his project.
But such views will anger Tory traditionalists, who are blaming the Cameron inner circle for a campaign which they claim lacked a cutting edge and failed to inspire the voters.
Although some Tory MPs have misgivings about the coalition, Cameron allies believe the agreement to legislate for five-year, fixed-term parliaments will ensure the coalition lasts. Another safeguard is to raise the threshold for a dissolution of Parliament to 55 per cent of MPs, making it hard for either coalition partner to walk away and provoke a general election. Privately, senior Tories believe they could enjoy an advantage at the next election because it will be difficult for the Liberal Democrats to criticise the coalition's record.
But the Liberal Democrats are jubilant about their surprise return to the Cabinet after almost 70 years in the wilderness. They trumpeted Mr Clegg's role as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of a programme of wide-ranging political reform including changes to the voting system for the Commons and an elected House of Lords. Some Liberal Democrats hailed as a victory the coalition's initial programme published yesterday and praised the team that negotiated it with the Tories. Lord Oakeshott of Seagrove Bay, a Liberal Democrat peer, said: "You see why Chris Huhne and David Laws were gold dust in the City. Thank God I've never had to negotiate against them. They've taken the Tories to the cleaners."
Britain's first coalition government since the Second World War got off to an impressive start when Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg held a press conference in the Downing Street rose garden. The new Prime Minister said: "It can be a historic and seismic shift in our political landscape. It can demonstrate, in government, a new progressive partnership." He added: "It will be an administration united behind one key purpose: to give our country the strong, stable and decisive leadership we need. We have a shared agenda and a shared resolve, to tackle the challenges that Britain faces."
Mr Clegg acknowledged that there would be "bumps and scrapes" as they were different parties with many different ideas, but insisted: "This is a Government that will last because despite those differences, we are united by a common purpose for the job we want to do in the next five years." He added: "Until today, we have been rivals, now we are colleagues. That says a lot about the scale of the new politics now beginning to unfold."
Mr Cameron handed five cabinet posts to Liberal Democrats – including David Laws as Chief Treasury Secretary, Vince Cable as Business Secretary, Chris Huhne as Energy and Climate Change Secretary and Danny Alexander as Scottish Secretary.
Theresa May becomes Home Secretary, only the second woman to hold the post, after Labour's Jacqui Smith – a surprise move aimed partly at heading off criticism that the Government was composed of "men in suits". But women took only four of the Cabinet's 23 posts. The others are Caroline Spelman, the Environment Secretary; Baroness Warsi, the new Tory chairman and Cheryl Gillan, Welsh Secretary.
There was a return to the front line for Iain Duncan Smith, the Tories' former leader, who becomes Work and Pensions Secretary in a move designed to reassure the party's right-wingers and a clear sign that the Government will pursue radical welfare reform. Kenneth Clarke, the former Chancellor, became Justice Secretary.
Despite the smooth start, the practical problems that are bound to arise in the double act were highlighted soon after the full Cabinet line-up was announced. Liberal Democrat sources claimed only Mr Clegg could remove the ministers from his party who serve in the Government. But Tory aides contradicted their new partners, insisting Mr Cameron enjoyed a veto over every member of his administration.
The new National Security Council met for the first time last night to discuss the conflict in Afghanistan and counter-terrorism measures in Britain.
United we stand: What they said about working together
"It will be an administration united behind three key principles: freedom, fairness and responsibility. And it will be an administration united behind one key purpose and that is to give our country the strong and stable and determined leadership that we need for the long-term."
David Cameron
"In other political cultures it would not be even a faintly radical thought that parties might co-operate with each other in government for the good of the country, but campaign against each other at election time. That is precisely the kind of thing that you will see now. I hope people will find it relatively unsurprising relatively quickly. As David has quite rightly said, we can only help bring that about by being successful in delivering the good government that we've negotiated in this coalition agreement... It's a new kind of government, a radical, reforming government... a source of reassurance at a time of great uncertainty."
Nick Clegg
"He has the Deputy Prime Minister's office in the Cabinet Office. We haven't yet explored all each other's offices, but [they are] pretty close together. This is not going to be a partnership where we have to book meetings."
David Cameron
"There is a corridor that links No 10 to where I am but I have no idea where I am. It's a rabbit warren."
Nick Clegg
"If [making the partnership] work means swallowing some humble pie, and it means eating some of your words, I can't think of a more excellent diet."
David Cameron
President's seal of approval
David Cameron seems to have made a good impression on his new deputy, and he also appears to have a fan in Barack Obama, too.
When the US President was asked in Washington last night – during a joint press conference with his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai – whether he had received any assurances from Mr Cameron about British commitment to the war in Afghanistan, Mr Obama replied: "I have found Mr Cameron to be a smart, dedicated, effective leader and somebody who we are going to be able to work with very effectively. He reaffirmed, without me bringing it up, his commitment to our strategy in Afghanistan. We also both reaffirmed the special relationship between the United States and Great Britain that outlasts any individual party, any individual leader. It is built up over centuries and is not going to go away."
Source: The Independent
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
New PM Cameron promises 'better times'

Press Association/ The Independent
David Cameron entered 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister tonight promising to lead Britain through to "better times ahead".
Arriving from his audience at Buckingham Palace where he formally "kissed hands" with the Queen, the Conservative leader said he intended to form a "full and proper" coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Gulf-based Brits could decide General Election: April 20th last day for voter registration
Heather Harper, Patron of Gulf Tories, says that key constituencies like Hammersmith and Crawley could be enough to decide the result. "In these areas, less than 100 votes each way are predicted to be enough to decide the outcome not only for that constituency but for the election as a whole. As it is estimated that there are perhaps as many as 100,000 eligible British voters in the GCC it is very possible that the result of the British General Election could turn on overseas votes."
Talking about the campaign to get expatriates living in the Gulf region registered to vote, Gulf Tories chairman, Douglas Hansen-Luke, said; “For the last three months this group have been alerting locally-based British citizens of their right to vote and how to go about it.”
Talking about the role expatriates can play in the Conservative plans after the manifesto launch, Philip Dunne, Deputy Chairman of the International Office of the Conservative party, with responsibility for Conservatives Abroad said “British citizens living overseas have a role to play in helping to solve the big problems the UK faces and help change the country for the better.. Living and working overseas, British expats can help promote British services and products, skills, technologies and education around the world. Our expats will only do that if they feel a part of what is going on in Britain today. The Conservative Manifesto invites British expats to get involved.”
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Sunday, March 21, 2010
British urged to register soon as election date approaches - The National Newspaper
source: loveday morris, the national, abu dhabi
ABU DHABI // The 200,000 Britons living in the UAE are being urged to register for voting as a general election looms.
No date has yet been set for the election, but it is widely expected to take place on May 6. Those who leave registration until the election is announced will have just a six-day window to post their forms.
“The key really is that people should register as soon as possible,” said Euan Holloway, a spokesman for the Electoral Commission, an independent watchdog.
“If you wait for the announcement, you’ve only got six working days to register, so if you are out in the UAE, and have to post your registration forms back to the UK, that doesn’t leave much time. To minimise the risk of missing out, we are saying do it now.”
The election will be announced 17 working days before Britain goes to the polls, with the deadline for registration 11 working days before the vote. British citizens living abroad can register as overseas voters if they registered to vote in the UK within the last 15 years.
There are several voting options – postal voting, proxy voting or proxy postal voting, but all involve posting registration forms back to Britain. Residents cannot vote at the British Embassy.
The commission said voters further afield should not use postal ballots since they were sent out about a week before the election.
“The rule of thumb we say to everyone outside Europe is proxy is probably best unless you have a superb postal system,” said Mr Holloway.
Using the proxy vote option, an overseas resident can nominate a person they trust to vote on their behalf. If that person does not live in the same constituency, they can vote through a postal proxy vote.
Full details and registration forms are available at www.aboutmyvote.co.uk.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Do you live in Hammersmith or Fulham?
Calling from one of the most marginal of seats in the UK, Hammersmith and Fulham's campaign worker Tara Douglas-Home has contacted Gulf Tories to ask expats to register and vote for the Conservatives.
"Our constituency is one of the most closely fought in the country. Even an extra 100 votes from Londoners based in the Gulf could decide the vote in our Hammersmith and that in turn could make a real difference to the result of the General Election overall."
"In the 2000 US Presidential election just a handful of votes in Florida decided Bush's victory over Al Gore.", says Heather Harper, Patron of Gulf Tories, "We think that there are around 10 constituencies in Britain where the result could be as significant. Hammersmith and Fulham is one of those seats and we have pledged to get their message out in the Middle East."
Anyone British citizen who has a property in Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush or is registered to vote open is able to play a part.
Whatever your Party, for more information on how to register and vote either contact Gillian Fischer, Campaign Co-ordinator for Gulf Tories (gillian.fischer@gulftories.com) or visit these websites www.dontleaveyourvoteathome.com and www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register_to_vote/british_citizens_living_abroad.aspx
"Want to make a difference?"
To be able to vote and make a difference, Britons abroad must register before the end of March. All British citizens who have been registered in a constituency at any point over the last fifteen years are entitled to vote and this year every vote will count.
In the latest polls the Conservative lead over Labour is just 2%. This is well within the margin of error of polling and essentially means that the vote could go either way.
For those of any party wanting to make a difference, Gulf Tories are recommending that potential voters visit one of these two sites http://www.dontleaveyourvoteathome.com or www.aboutmyvote.co.uk to download the Electoral Commission's registration form. They also recommend that to ensure votes arrive on time it is best to nominate friends or relations to act as proxy.
For further comment on British politics or advice on how to register and vote please contact: Gillian Fischer at gillian.fischer@gulftories.com
Heather Harper: General Election is biggest chance to change Government in decade
If you are British and were formerly registered in any of the following constituencies, then this could be your chance to make a real difference:
Battersea
Crawley
Croydon Central
Fulham
Hammersmith
Harlow
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
In each of these areas, less than 100 votes each way are predicted to be enough to decide the outcome not only for that constituency but for the election as a whole. As it is estimated that there are perhaps as many as 100,000 eligible British voters in the GCC it is very possible that the result of the British General Election could turn on overseas votes.
For this reason Gulf Tories are working hard throughout the GCC to ensure that every UK national is made aware of what's at stake and how to register to vote.
The deadline to register to vote is 31st March.
Forms can be downloaded at www.don'tleaveyourvoteathome.com or http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/
For more information on how to register or vote, Gulf Tories recommend contacting their campaign co-ordinator Gillian Fischer on gillian.fischer@gulftories.com
Friday, March 19, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Time is running out for expats to register to vote
David Cameron: Good government costs less with the Conservatives
It's great to be back in Wales. It's four years since I first addressed this conference. Back then we were just a footnote in Welsh politics. And just look at what we've done since then.
We've won council seats in Denbighshire, in
We've got over sixty more councillors in cities, towns and villages and even in Labour's heartland, and yes, even deep in the valleys, even in the Rhonda let's not forget Joel James - he may be the only Conservative in the village but were proud of the progress we've made.
And four years ago, who would have thought that the Conservative Party could top the poll in Wales beating Labour for the first time since the
FIVE MORE YEARS
Yes, you've all been working hard. But today I'm here to ask you to double your efforts. That general election is just over sixty days away. This isn't an election that it would be quite nice to win. It is an election it is absolutely essential we win because our country is in a complete mess and we have to turn it around. Everyone knows five more years of Gordon Brown would be a disaster for this country. Another five years of his spending, bloat, waste, debt and taxes. Another five years of failing to get to grips with our big social problems. Another five years in our politics of that big, top-down, bossy "I know best" sort of approach.
That's why the choice at the next election is as simple as this: Five more years of Gordon Brown's tired government making things worse or change with the Conservatives, who have the energy, leadership and values to get the country moving again. Change in our economy, backing aspiration and opportunity and aspiration for all. Change in our society, encouraging responsibility and backing those who do the right thing. And change in our politics, giving people more power and control over their lives
THE CHOICE IN WALES
And Wales needs that change as much as anywhere else in Britain. In fact, I'd argue it needs it even more. Do you know what Peter Hain said last month? He said "compared with
But what does it say about this Government - and these Ministers - when they compare Wales to the 17th poorest country on the planet? What does it say about this Government - and these Ministers - when the scale of their ambitions for Wales do not seem to go beyond a country that in the last twenty years has been ravaged by war and genocide? What does it say about this Government - and these Ministers - when they think the Welsh should put up with this and just be thankful for what they get?
I tell you what it says. It says this Government is arrogant, out-of-touch and has completely lost any right to govern. So at this election, I want you to show your real passion and anger at how Labour have let down Wales. Because there is a simple fact about what's happened here in the past decade. There's not just a border separating Wales and the rest of the UK - there's a prosperity gap. And under Labour it's got deeper and wider. This is the poorest nation on these islands. It has the highest rates of unemployment and the highest rates of child poverty. There is only one word for what Labour have done in Wales this last decade: failure and I don't want you to let anyone forget it. But more than that, I want you to tell the people of this great country that it doesn't have to be like this. Explain to them the real difference between Labour's approach and the Conservative way.
Take the economy. Labour think you get the economy moving by opening up the big government toolbox, pulling out the old tools like regional development agencies and new initiatives and trying to crank it to life from on high. We understand that in the end it's not government that will get the Welsh economy growing it's enterprise, it's entrepreneurs, people with a great idea and the courage to start their own business. That's why we'll cut corporation tax rates, abolish taxes on the first ten jobs created by new businesses and get people off welfare and into work.
And look at our different approach to our biggest social problems. Labour say we're wrong to talk about mending our broken society. But when there are towns in Wales where one in five of the working age population live on benefits when one in ten are on some type of incapacity benefit when there are 140 violent crimes a day in this country when about 500 people in Wales die each year from alcohol when so many children are deprived the structure of stable
And there is a massive difference in the way Labour and the Conservatives see our politics. Labour see a system that is fundamentally sound but just needs a bit of tinkering to sort out the expenses scandal. We see a top-down, bossy, power-hoarding, unaccountable relic that needs to be re-built from the bottom up. Yes, we'll sort out expenses - and we've been leading the way on that - but we need to go much further.We will give everyone in Wales a sense that they are in control of their own destiny. That's why we'll reduce the number of MPs, cut
That's the difference between Labour and the Conservatives. Inaction vs action. Defeat vs optimism. Despair for Wales vs hope for Wales. There's no iron law that says Labour must win in Wales. So at this election, I want you to get out there and fight, fight for our party and fight for the change we want bring above all, fight for Wales and fight for the future of Britain.
DEVOLUTION
But let me say this, whatever the outcome in Wales at the next election, we want a relationship of co-operation, not confrontation, between
THE BIG QUESTION IN POLITICS
But today I don't just want to talk to you about how we can secure the future of Wales, I want to set out how we can secure the future of the
At the last few elections, according to Labour the big question in politics was: "who do you trust to spend some more of your money?" That was Gordon Brown's question. Well I've a message for you, Gordon: it's over. There isn't any money left. You've spent it all. No, the question today is this: "how do we make things better without just spending money?" This is the question that will define British politics for the years to come and today, I want to show you how it's only the modern Conservative Party that has the answers.
BIG SPENDING FAILS
We've always known that you don't improve things by just spending more money on them. For years now at Prime Minister's Questions I've faced Gordon Brown - and Tony Blair before him - droning on about resources going up, spending going up, investment going up...all to cheers from the Labour benches. They were always less forthcoming about what that money had actually bought. Social mobility, Stagnant. Inequality, rising. Hundreds of thousands more living in severe poverty. They thought it was all about money. It wasn't. And no there is no money left there is nothing left to say. Labour never understand that it's not the numbers on the government cheque that count but the
MORE FOR LESS
So after all this waste, all this failure and now all this debt, it falls to us, the modern Conservative Party, to restore hope in all those Labour have let down. Showing government can be smarter, better, more imaginative and more competent. Explaining how we can make things better without just spending money, how we can deliver more for less. More for less is not some pie-in-the-sky political promise. It's something that businesses up and down the country do day-in, day-out. They think: how can I deliver more for my customers while reducing my costs? Imagine if they took the Labour approach, believing that every reduction in spending and costs was automatically a calamity for their customers.
Think of the advertising. Good food costs more at Sainsburys. Not "Every little helps" from Tesco, but "Every little Hurts". Businesses are constantly looking for creative ways to get more bang for their buck. Reforming work practices. Buying wholesale when they can. Eradicating duplication. Innovating new delivery systems. Cutting out waste. We need to bring that business sense and imagination to government.
Let me make clear: we are not offering a simple efficiency drive. We're not promising that the path to less spending and better
And this means doing three things in particular: First, tackling the root causes of our
REDUCING THE DEMANDS ON THE STATE
First, reducing the long-term demands on the state. In plain English that means asking the obvious question: why is public spending so high in the first place? We spend so much on prisons because there is too much crime. We spend so much on welfare because there are too many people not properly equipped for work. We spend so much on health because our lifestyles are so unhealthy. We need to rewind and ask: what are the causes of these things? Do you know how much social breakdown costs our country each year? Over £100 billion. That's one and a half thousand pounds for every person in our country. That money gets spent on the family that's broken, the man who's never known what it is to work, the child who's growing up in desperate circumstances, the communities who live in fear of violence and crime and it passes through our education system, our healthcare system, our criminal
Now just imagine if we got to grips with our social problems - gave everyone the hope that comes with work; every child the chance that comes with love; every community the purpose that comes with security. We would make life so much better for so many people. And we'd also massively reduce the bills for government. In other words, delivering more for less. The question is: how do we do that?
And here, there's a real difference between our approach and Labour's approach. Labour's approach is just to treat the symptoms of our big social problems by spending more money. For example, when it comes to poverty they think a tax credit here or a benefit change there will make all the difference. But all this does is keep people stuck in poverty while at the same time leaving the state with an ongoing role. Our approach is to tackle the root causes of poverty, like welfare dependency, addiction, debt, poor schooling and above all, family breakdown, so the state is no longer so dominant. That's why we have put such focus on school reform, welfare reform and strengthening families, giving people the chance to lift themselves up and out of poverty, breaking the cycles that have existed for generations, and being the ones who will make British poverty history.
PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM
The second way we can deliver more for less is through reform of our public services. In 2001 Gordon Brown said "there is not going to be one penny more until we get the changes" we need to reform our public services. But there's been trillions of pennies since then - and where's the reform? It was blocked. By guess who? Gordon Brown.
He now poses as the champion of public service reform. The truth is that he is to reforming public services what Nero was to fire safety or Tiger Woods to marital fidelity. Speak to doctors, nurses, teachers, police officers and they'll tell you what a nightmare it is working in Labour's bureaucratic state machine. They start out idealistic, they go into their training because they have a vocation, they have a love for what they do but that passion is being killed. It's death by a thousand tick boxes, targets, performance indicators, inspection regimes. They're left feeling demoralised, disrespected, disillusioned. Most of all they're pulling their hair out because they see all that money being wasted and they know that it could be spent so much better. That's why our reforms will all led by this common, clear Conservative principle: Public services work better when they're driven from the bottom-up, by people on the frontline. So we're going to take apart the centralised apparatus of
We'll also smash open the state monopoly and open the door to charities and private companies who can play a part in the
CUTTING WASTE
All these changes will have a profound impact on how much government spends. But the truth is it may take years to feel many of the benefits - and we can't afford to wait that long. We need to start getting more for less from day one. So there is a third component to our plans - cutting out waste. Labour's spendaholic culture needs no introduction. This is the Government that has elevated money-burning to an art form. We've all got our own ridiculous Labour waste story.
Since 2003, this Government have paid out £10 million in tax credits - to people who are actually dead. Then there's an agency of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills - they spent, and I promise this is true, £12,000 on branded golf balls. Or how about the Department for
And of course, no list of Labour waste can be complete without Ed Balls. You don't suffer his rule in Wales, but your taxes pay for it, so let me share this with you. His Department for Children, Schools and Families reportedly spent £3 million on lavish new offices - which included a massage room and 'contemplation suite'. While we're on that department, I found my own story this week. Flicking through the Guardian I saw an advert they'd placed taking up a third of a page of prime-time space. Sadly they weren't advertising for a new Secretary of State. They were asking people - and let me quote this accurately - 'to put questions to the National Strategies about primary children's writing.' Leave aside the question of how you put a question to a strategy; just think of the bureaucratic carnival of waste behind an ad like this. A group of civil servants emerge, presumably from the 'contemplation suite' with a novel idea. They want to set up a taskforce for primary reading. The taskforce books a weekend away to devise a strategy. The strategy needs further thought so they hire consultants. Then there's the branding. The auditing. The monitoring. The strategy needs to be legally reviewed, peer reviewed, benchmarked, mentored and mainstreamed but not before there's an allocation resources impact assessment.Then they call the communications department to create a website, design an ad and get it placed.
I could have saved them all that bother and all that money. Writing is about the imagination. What you need is some great teachers, some good books, some pencils and some paper. Is that really too difficult? Now of course, the golf balls, the dancers, the lavish offices, the advertising campaigns - these are just the small examples of waste under Labour. There have been monumental ones too. The £4.5 billion spent - each year - on NHS bureaucracy. That's more than we spend on maternity and reproductive health. The £3 billion lost in benefit fraud and error. That's more than we spend on winter fuel payments. Every pound Labour waste is a pound that should be spent on keeping us safe, educating our children, improving our hospitals. That's why their spendaholic culture isn't a diverting amusement or a mild irritation - it is a complete outrage and we will obliterate it.
I know there are those who will hear us talking about cut waste and say "you'll be no different, you'll have your pet projects, you'll go native when you start living in the land of bureaucrats". So let me explain why we'll be different. We'll be different because we are different. First, our attitude is different. Conservatives loathe waste. Efficiency is in our DNA. We never forget that fundamental fact about public money, which is that it's public, it's yours, not ours. It doesn't undergo some magical transformation at the Treasury to become government money. Those are the same pounds that were earned by you on the factory floor, on the hospital ward, in the office and we will never forget that we have a moral duty not to spend your money but to save it where we can.
Second, our philosophy is different. We don't believe in top-down control; we believe in local control. We don't believe in taking power; we believe in giving it away. And this will have a massive impact on our quest to cut out waste and deliver more for less. It's not just that a pound spent closer is a pound spent wiser - by those who really know the needs of a local community. It's also that a pound spent closer is a pound spent more efficiently - by those who have an interest in keeping costs down.
And third, our approach is different. I don't think people get quite how radical we propose to be. The next Conservative government will be the first genuinely post-bureaucratic government in the world. We will ditch all the wasteful, costly, old-world bureaucratic methods and instead use post-bureaucratic tools. And when it comes to cutting waste, nothing is more important to this agenda than transparency. We're going to publish every item of
Think what this simple act of throwing things open will mean. It will mean an army of 'armchair auditors' will be crawling all over the books, scrutinising them and acting as a straitjacket on wasteful spending. It will mean the Minister who lazily signs off a monster contract without checking if he could get it cheaper will be caught out and will have to answer for their actions. It will mean that businesses and social enterprises can compete to offer better government services for less money. I defy anyone to call our plans of changing the way government works timid. They are bold - and they will make a massive difference. And they are why we can look the British people in the eye and say a Tory pound will go further than a Labour pound...that good government costs less with the Conservatives.
CONCLUSION
We know what we're fighting for. When you're out there on the doorstep, when you're writing a leaflet at 2am, when you're pounding the streets for hours I want you to keep two pictures of Wales in your mind.
First, an image of Wales under Labour. Limping on with high unemployment, increasing
These two visions of Wales are so far apart, but they come together in the polling booth with the real choice that people have at this election. It's our job to keep explaining that choice for the next sixty days. Yes, we have a fight on our hands, but believe me - the Wales that would emerge from our victory - a confident, prosperous, family friendly Wales - will be worth it. So let's get out there and win it.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Tory lead in marginal seats narrows
Research conducted in 60 important seats puts the Tories just two points ahead, on 39% compared with Labour's 37%
David Cameron suffered another blow tonight after a poll showed that the Tory lead in key marginal constituencies has slumped.
As the row over Lord Ashcroft's non-dom status refused to die down, research conducted in 60 important seats puts the Tories just two points ahead, on 39% compared with Labour's 37%.
The findings of the YouGov poll for Channel 4 News fuel speculation that the general election will result in a hung parliament. The figures also cast doubt on senior Tories' attempts to play down the recent slump in nationwide surveys by claiming the party was still performing well in marginals.
The results of the poll, conducted in 60 constituencies where Labour beat the Tories by between six and 14 percentage points at the 2005 general election, also raise questions about the effectiveness of the targeted campaign organised and funded by the party's controversial deputy chairman, Lord Ashcroft.
Eighteen months ago, YouGov found the Conservatives were 13 points ahead in the seats, where they must triumph in order to secure a working majority.
But the advantage was down to seven points by February last year, and appears to have fallen further since then.
Peter Kellner of YouGov said the swing of 6.5% in the marginals was higher than the 4.5% it was estimating nationally. "If we apply this swing to each Labour marginal, the Tories would win 52 out of the 60 seats," he said.
"Add that to the 43 Labour super-marginals, where Labour's majority last time was below 6%, and the Tories would capture 95 seats overall from Labour."
That would leave Cameron leading the largest party in the Commons, but 11 seats short of an overall majority.
The poll of 3,481 potential voters in the 60 marginal constituencies was conducted between March 2 and 4 – the day after Ashcroft broke his silence to reveal that he remains a non-dom and does not pay tax on his earnings abroad in the UK despite receiving his peerage 10 years ago.
The revelation by the multimillionaire deputy chairman of the Tory party has been embarrassing to David Cameron, who has endorsed cross-party calls to ban non-doms from parliament.
It emerged today that the Tory party leader only found out last month about Ashcroft's tax status.
William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary who as Tory leader in 2000 lobbied for Ashcroft to be made a peer, revealed last night he had known for a "few months".
There were further problems for the party after the conclusion of an Electoral Commission investigation into £5m it received from a company owned by Lord Ashcroft.
The Electoral Commission ruled today that the donations did not breach election laws, but it noted that Tory party officials refused to meet the commission in the course of its 14-month inquiry.
The revelations pose new questions for the Conservatives over their acceptance of the money, which has been ploughed into marginal seats ahead of the election.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Economist Bagehot: Into the triangle of hope

Who and where are the voters who will decide the outcome of the general election?
HE OR she must be out there somewhere. That is, according to some marketing men and pollsters. Every election throws up an identikit swing voter—“Mondeo man” and “Worcester woman” in campaigns of yore—whose demographic group is said to hold the key to the outcome. The latest alliterative super-voters include the “Swindon swinger” and “Motorway man”; the latter connotes a rootless, consumerist 20-something who lives on a new housing estate and near a motorway junction. This week Bagehot headed north to try to find these mythical voters, and to discover whether they really hold such sway.
He began in Bury North, in Lancashire. The textile mills that once sustained Bury are derelict; the steam railway that runs through it now carries tourists rather than cloth. But proximity to Manchester has helped it to weather the collapse of the old industries. The constituency also includes moorland and some prosperous villages. It is a classic marginal, falling to Margaret Thatcher in 1983 and to Labour in the 1997 landslide. To win in 2010, David Cameron’s Tories need to reclaim it.
On the fringes of Bury, the Victorian terraces give way to the sort of new estate in which, Bagehot speculated, “Motorway man” might lurk. But things are evidently more complicated than such categories imply. David Nuttall, the congenial Tory candidate, points to several key sets of voters: couples with young families; first-time voters; and, in a seat where the state is the largest employer (the biggest private one is a call centre), disgruntled public-sector workers: the sort of people to whom the recent Tory talk of mutualism in the public services was pitched. The planned closure of a local maternity ward is a hot topic.
The biggest struggle, however, may be to overcome the resentment caused by the parliamentary-expenses scandal. It has touched Bury North particularly because its Labour MP, David Chaytor, is among the handful now facing criminal charges. But Labour may not be the only party to suffer: it has a new candidate, and the backlash seems to be indiscriminate. At a pensioners’ lunch at a Bury pub (which advertises “recession specials”) the anger is general: “they’re all as bad as each other”; “they all promise the moon”. Here the most important type of elector may not be swing voters but those too furious to vote at all.
That may also be true in North West Leicestershire. Even the Liberal Democrat candidate—not fancied to triumph—reports vitriolic abuse on some doorsteps. On the high street in Ashby-de-la-Zouch, a tidy market town, Bagehot momentarily thought he had found the archetypal swing voter: a youngish mother who lives on the edge of town and whose husband works for Rolls-Royce—just the sort of characteristics that political strategists get excited about. But she turned out to be a vitriolic Tory-hater (“I remember what the Tories did in the ’80s…”). There seems still to be a surprising amount of that sentiment around.
Like Bury North, North West Leicestershire lies in what some senior Tories describe as the “triangle of hope”: the swathe of seats from the Midlands to the north-west that their party must conquer to secure a parliamentary majority. Politically as well as geographically, the constituency is in the middle of England. Like Bury North it was taken by Labour in 1997, and combines comfortable bits with grittier areas such as the town of Coalville. (There are a monument and a museum to Coalville’s mines, but the things themselves are closed.)
Labour has a new candidate here as well, but for different reasons: David Taylor, the popular incumbent, died in December. Party workers refer to the wavering voters whom he managed to retain as “Taylor Tories”. They are a potentially vital group. But another are those former Labour voters, mostly in Coalville, who in council elections have switched to the British National Party: immigration is a big concern here, despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that there isn’t much of it. Another prime target for the candidates are the activist professionals in Castle Donington and other twee villages outside Ashby. They have organised protests against assorted unwanted developments and the closure of local facilities; all the parties court their favour assiduously. “Motorway man” and his ilk seem a relatively low priority.
Thatcher’s children
“Worcester woman”, “Mondeo man” and the rest are mostly variations on the same general theme: they describe the lower middle classes and skilled manual workers—C1s and C2s in marketing speak—who are thought to be more politically volatile than other voters, and thus to decide the fate of marginal seats and so elections overall. In truth, politics has always been more complicated than that; among other things, as an old political adage and Bagehot’s travels suggest, voting has always been influenced by local characters and concerns. And in 2010 the business of winning elections has become more complex than ever.
Some Labour and Tory figures talk optimistically of reviving the coalitions of voters that Tony Blair assembled in 1997 or that Mrs Thatcher corralled to her side in the 1980s. But in the past 13 years, to say nothing of the past 30, the structure of the economy and the shape of the electorate have changed dramatically. Even before the expenses palaver, fewer people were voting, and more of those who did were voting for smaller parties. Class allegiances have become less predictive of voting patterns; the main parties’ bases have fragmented. There are more opportunities for politicians to grab votes from their opponents, but a greater risk of losing some they once relied on. They need more sophisticated campaigning and more local nous than ever to succeed.
Bagehot didn’t find the legendary super-voter on his little tour. That may be because he didn’t look in the right places. But it may be because the super-voter isn’t out there after all.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
David Cameron: Join us help bring the change Britain needs
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